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Fall in the Courtenay River. (Courtesy Tanja Kerr)
Showers today – drier tomorrow
The slow moving low offshore is spinning showers our way today. Precipitation is expected to be light to moderate on the island. By tomorrow the low will have moved farther south and opened into a trough, sending rain to southern Washington State and Oregon.
Conditions will be mainly dry for Vancouver Island Friday with mainly cloudy skies and even a few sunny breaks! Only isolated showers are expected north of the Malahat.
Snow in the mountains
Freezing levels are about 1,200 to 1,500 metrss today, which means Mt. Washington should get a few centimetres of snow in the next 24 hours. More is on the way on the weekend and again next week.
A look to the weekend
Another trough develops and digs down from Alaska Saturday. Flow will be south to southwest as a front develops and drapes over Vancouver Island. That means showers for some parts of the island, snow in the mountains, especially late in the day.
The front then stalls, delivering heavier rain for Vancouver Island. At times it will be windy, too. Again, at the higher elevations the precipitation will fall as snow, as freezing levels will hover between 1200 metres and 1500 metres. Good news for Mt. Washington which plans to open in less than a month!
Confidence is increasing that winter on the island will be colder than average and with more precipitation, which, in some cases, could translate to snow.
Today’s update from the Climate Prediction Centre/NCEP/NWS suggests La Nina conditions are favoured (65%-75%) to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-2018.
Under this weather pattern, the next three months will lean towards temperatures that are below average, and precipitation that is above average. Forecasters are expecting these conditions to persist into early Spring.