Vancouver Island Votes: Ridings to watch in the 2025 federal election

A person casts a ballot in this file photo. (Chris Young / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

People on Vancouver Island are committed to making their vote count in the upcoming federal election, particularly as the world watches Donald Trump’s presidency and its impact on cross-border relations with Canada.

Pollsters and political pundits say Canada-U.S. tensions have been shaking up national polls, setting up intriguing races on Vancouver Island in the 2025 federal election – including Nanaimo-Ladysmith, North Island-Powell River, Victoria and Saanich-Gulf Islands.

“I think it’s the first time that we’ve really woken up to the fact that our sovereignty as a nation can be threatened,” says Saanich-Gulf Islands voter Bonnie Proven. “I’m going to vote more strategically.”

While national polls suggest a tight, two-way race between the Conservatives and Liberals, history has proven Vancouver Island tends to be an outlier at the polls.

“It’s tough to tell whether the fluctuation that we’re seeing at the federal level and the B.C.-wide level is going to play out in the Island as well,” says Research Co. president Mario Canseco. “The Island is extremely unique in the sense that it doesn’t always endorse a government.”

Elections Canada results show voters on Vancouver Island sent a wave of endorsement to the former Alliance Party in 2000 when Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien was re-elected. In 2004, five of those members of parliament were re-elected under changed parties.

The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP would remain on the island’s map through Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper’s early years. In 2011, Elizabeth May made history on the Island as the first Green elected. And at the dawn of the sequel to Trudeaumania in 2015, the Island bucked the Liberal trend turning largely orange – setting it up as an NDP stronghold that’s held since the last federal election in September 2021.

“Whatever their intention is, if they’re thinking about voting strategically you really have to look at it riding by riding. I’d be very cautious about looking at national polls,” says Camosun College political scientist, Dan Reeve.

“The thing about the aggregators: They make projections,” says Canseco. “So, it’s not actually a specific number of interviews that you have in that riding that has been statistically reviewed and where you apply weights and where you look at the representative nature of the sample.”

The experts say the key to candidates earning votes could come down to door knocking.

Advance polling stations will be open April 18 – 21 from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. and general voting is April 28.

South Island ‘battlegrounds’

“I would suggest that it’s probably one of our biggest elections,” says Saanich-Gulf Islands voter Ian Mellor.

The riding is considered one to watch on the South Island as Elizabeth May tries to extend her 14-year tenure as the Green member of parliament.

“She’s been a wonderful MP and if the circumstances were different, I would continue to vote for her because I have in the past. But I think this time we have to be careful how the vote is split,” says Proven.

“I’ve got a feeling she’ll do well again,” says another Saanich-Gulf Islands voter Rick Healey.

Political experts say May’s brand is strong and she remains well-liked, but it hasn’t stopped predictions for a multi-party race.

“There’s lots and lots of signs,” says Saanich-Gulf Islands voter Russ Jones. “It’s of course very different because of what’s going on in the U.S.”

“Is the Green issue as big now as it was when she was elected the latest time? That’s the question,” wonders Mellor.

B.C.’s capital is another riding turning heads.

“I think this is going to be a race between the Liberals and the NDP on this particular riding,” says Reeve.

Voters in Victoria’s riding haven’t elected any party but the NDP since Liberal MP David Anderson in 2004.

In the last election in September 2021, incumbent Laurel Collins won her seat with 43.9 per cent of the vote. The second-place party at the time was Liberal.

“The world is a different place. And we need good governance to keep us strong and on the world stage represented well,” says Victoria voter Creole Carmichael.

The sprawling urban to more remote Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke riding is an open race, since the NDP’s Randall Garrison announced he wouldn’t run for re-election.

“In Esquimalt, I think you’re going to see kind of a two-and-a-half party race,” says Reeve. “You’re going to see the Conservatives who historically have been strong there and the NDP. And then I think you’ll see the Liberals be that other half party.”

“My main concern really is Donald Trump,” says local voter Peter Dawson.

While national pride remains one of the campaign’s central issues, Reeve notes Canadian flags hang at many homes along with signs representative of numerous political parties – and a key task for the candidates and their volunteers will be helping get out the vote.

North Island battlegrounds

On the mid and north Island, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre began courting voters with rallies and campaign-style events well before the election call.

“Four or five times at least since he became leader. I mean nobody else, I think, has visited the island as much as he has,” says UVic political scientist Michael Prince.

A storyline to watch will be whether Poilievre can galvanize the blue wave there that he’s looking for.

“I’d probably rater vote PPC [People’s Party of Canada] but I’m going to vote Conservative because they don’t have enough MPss to win,” says Nanaimo-Ladysmith voter Kelly Armstrong.

“I have nothing against Conservative values or ideology. It’s just their attitude and their level of aggression and bullying. That’s not politics,” says another voter in North Island-Powell River.

While the NDP took the regional lead in the last federal election, the Conservatives weren’t far behind in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and North Island-Powell River. According to Elections Canada there was a difference of 1,199 and 2,163 votes respectively.

“[Poilievre] coming here is not a mistake. It’s a very calculated strategy that he thinks he can take two or three of those seats,” says Prince, adding those are places where right-of-centre candidates have seen past success.

The North Island-Powell River riding is not without controversy – namely old Tweets from Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn regarding residential schools.

“They may still win with him despite the controversy surrounding Mr. Gunn. But that one is worth watching because an incumbent is not running. It’s a seat up for grabs,” says Prince.

In Nanaimo-Ladysmith, NDP incumbent Lisa Marie Barron is being challenged by three other candidates.

“Somebody could conceivably win the seat with 26 per cent [of the vote] because you have a four-person race,” says Canseco.

“I’ll be glad when it’s over,” says North Island-Powell River voter Helen Weiss.

Like many Canadians, she says U.S. president Donald Trumps politics are influential this election. But she wants to see attention paid to other issues too.

“We need to be thinking about the climate and so many other things that have taken a backseat in this Trump war,” she says.