At the dissolution of parliament, British Columbia had a remarkable three-way split of seats for the three major parties, and that could be a sign that their leaders will be spending a lot of time on the West Coast as they look to woo voters to their side.
The Liberal Party held 14 seats, the Conservatives had 14 of their own, while the NDP held 12 and party leader, Elizabeth May, held the sole Green Party seat in the province. Another seat on Vancouver Island was vacated last month.
That unusual balance of seats will likely see the major party leaders spend considerable time in B.C., as they did during the 2021 election, when at least one of them was in the province at any given time for half the campaign.
“B.C. is definitely one of the key battlegrounds in this election,” said UBC political scientist, Stewart Prest.
“Particularly when we look around the Lower Mainland, it’s a vote-rich area and it is also an area where the divisions of the country are particularly stark…and it is seen as is one of the key places where votes are up for grabs. “
Dueling promises on income tax cuts from the Conservative and Liberal leaders, and a focus on housing by the NDP leader, dominated the first full day on the campaign trail, but the mood in the country and focus on economic and sovereignty threats from the US has many voters thinking more about who can best handle Canada-US relations than domestic policies.
And that factor may change the course of the election.
An Angus Reid poll, published on Monday, surveyed 2400 members of the Angus Reid Forum from March 21 to 24 and found 50 per cent of decided or leaning voters in Metro Vancouver likely to vote Liberal, compared to just 30 per cent for the Conservatives and only 18 per cent for the NDP.
The findings carry a margin of error of +/- 2 per centage points, 19 times out of 20.
“The collapse of the NDP vote has turned B.C. from a three-way race, as it traditionally has been, into a head-to-head contest between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” wrote the Angus Reid pollsters, in an analysis Prest was anticipating in the wake of the trade war and annexation threats.
“When the stakes get high, Canadians do tend to gravitate towards a two choice ballot,” he said.
“I think this is a moment where people are keenly aware of how much politics matters and that when when things go wrong, they can go really wrong.”
