The Raptors could land the top pick in the NBA draft tonight. Here’s what statisticians say about their chances

People walk by a sign during the NBA basketball draft lottery in Chicago, Tuesday, May 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

There is a chance the Toronto Raptors will land the first pick in the NBA Draft — it’s about as likely as pulling an Ace from a shuffled deck of playing cards.

The NBA draft lottery takes place in Chicago on Monday night and the Raptors go into the draw with roughly a 7.5 per cent chance of earning the right to pick first overall and draft Duke University star Cooper Flagg.

Flagg, 18, was the Naismith National Player of the Year in U.S. college basketball and analysts have suggested he is the type of star that can instantly change a team’s fortunes.

“How it works is teams are ranked basically in reverse order performance in the previous season,” Noah Forman, associate professor of mathematics and statistics at McMaster University, told CTV News Toronto, noting it can become complicated when teams trade future draft picks.

The three teams who had the worst records this past season—the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets—have the best odds snagging the first draft pick at 14 per cent each.

The Raptors, who finished with the NBA’s seventh worst record at 30-52, have the seventh best odds.

The lottery only determines the top four draft picks. After that the order is set based on the reverse standings.

While it is a slim chance for the Raptors to clinch that first pick, it is not an impossible get, according to another mathematics professor at Toronto Metropolitan University.

Last year, the Atlanta Hawks won the draft lottery with just three per cent odds.

“It’s unlikely, (but) it’s not a long shot,” Anthony Bonato told CTV news Toronto in an interview. “And, actually, if you look at the top four pick … it’s about a 31.95 per cent chance for the Raptors, so that’s about a one-in-three shot of jumping into this high impact position.”

That said, Utah, Washington and Charlotte each have a roughly 52 per cent chance of getting a top four draft pick.

While the Raptors do have a roughly one-in-three shot of getting a top four selection, they have a roughly 68 per cent chance of landing the seventh to 11th picks.

The single most likely outcome is that the Raptors drop one spot to eight. That has about a 34 per cent chance of happening.

They cannot get fifth or sixth picks.

“So, it’s set up so that, in some sense, the middle of their range is getting the seventh pick and the way they’ve set the lottery is if you move up, if you get better than your slot, you get better than the seventh pick as Toronto, you’re specifically moving up into the top four,” Forman explained.

The last time the Raptors had similar odds for getting the top draft pick was in 2021 when they jumped up to fourth and drafted eventual NBA Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

The Raptors last won the draft lottery in 2006.