Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford has been re-elected as Ontario’s premier, positioning himself to become one of the province’s longest-serving leaders in recent history.
Ford secured his third straight majority government in Thursday’s snap election, making him the first Ontario premier since Dalton McGuinty to win three consecutive terms.
Should Ford serve his entire four year term, he would become Ontario’s fourth longest-serving premier.
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In an interview with CTV News Toronto, political commentator Scott Reid said Ford’s re-election cements his place among the most durable political leaders the province has seen.
“This is one of the more durable, successful political machines that we’ve seen in Ontario history and in postwar Canadian politics,” he said.
But with political longevity comes mounting risks. Here’s a look at what Ontarians can expect from another Ford government — and the promises that could define his legacy.
Ontarians can likely expect ‘more of the same’
Despite the many promises the PCs have made along their campaign, Reid says Ford’s governing style is unlikely to change.
“Doug Ford has run on and has governed on the unstated promise of more of the same,” Reid said. “I would be shocked if we didn’t get a lot more of the same.”
Ford’s government is expected to continue spending on large-scale infrastructure projects, including highways and transit.
One of the pricier promises is Ford’s push to spend $15 billion to speed up priority transportation projects like a proposed tunnel underneath Highway 401 that many experts have criticized as unrealistic.
Reid says Ontarians can expect Ford to spend big while also delivering broad-based tax breaks.
“They (PCs) strongly believe the tax benefits should go almost universal so that they are not put in the position of picking and choosing demographics,” Reid said.
Broad tax breaks would be nothing new for the Ford government who recently issued $200 rebates to help with the cost of living. Among other polices, Ford also promises to make a 5.7 cents per litre temporary cut of the provincial gas tax permanent.
When it comes to the “big what if” Reid says the underlying question is whether Ford will shift his focus toward hospitals and classrooms amid growing pressure on the province’s healthcare and education systems.
“If I was looking for any hint of change whatsoever in terms of how he spends money, it might be where, not how much,” Reid added.
Threats to Ford’s third term
Two of the biggest threats facing Ford’s government are time and scandal, experts say.
“The first is longevity. People get tired of you. Just a fundamental fact of politics,” Reid said.
The second threat could come from the ongoing RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap. The probe into Ford’s handling of the protected land has loomed over his government since last year.
“If something comes of that investigation then, you know, that’s not just an issues management challenge for Ford. It becomes a massive opportunity for one of the opposition parties to finally get the sharp end of the spear through his political armor,” Reid explained.
The fight against tariffs: Ford vs. Trump
As the U.S. moves to impose tariffs on March 4, Ontario’s manufacturing sector could be exposed to economic disruption. But Reid says Ford’s ability to respond will be limited.
“What we’re going to discover over the next six months to a year is that it’s prime ministers and the federal government that really execute on those policies,” Reid said.
While Ford could invest provincial funds to protect jobs, retaliatory measures on energy exports or tariffs would require coordination and most likely permission from Ottawa.
“He may be vocal, but ultimately none of that’s going to happen unless he’s working in concurrence with the federal government,” Reid said.
What promises are almost certain from Ford?
Ford is expected to continue prioritizing big-ticket industrial projects aimed at attracting and preserving jobs, Reid says.
“You can be sure that Doug Ford will continue to invest in massive big-picture infrastructure,” Reid said, emphasizing areas like highways and transit to be a big focus.
Reid predicts the government could shift its industrial policy focus from attracting new plants to preserving operations already in Ontario.
What will be his legacy?
If Ford completes this term, he will surpass notables leaders like Dalton McGuinty as the fourth-longest-serving premier in Ontario’s history, just behind former premier Leslie Frost in third place who served 12 years.
Reid also said that Ford holds the relatively unique distinction of continuing to grow his mandate. He entered the 2025 election with his party holding 79 seats but the Tories appeared to be on track to securing 81 seats late Thursday night.
“Doug Ford will be remembered as a historically successful political leader, as someone who built a political machine with the resources, the wit, and the discipline to win elections one after another and to buck the trend of time for change.,” Reid said.
