As a rebound in support for the Liberal Party of Canada continues amid simmering tensions with the United States, new polling shows what amounts to a “dead heat” with the Conservatives in a federal election, were it to happen today.
Released Tuesday, the latest weekly ballot tracking from Nanos Research shows an increasingly tight race between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who held a commanding lead in the polls for more than a year that lasted up until just a few weeks ago.
There is currently a four-point gap between the Conservatives, at 37 per cent, and Liberals, at 33, in the Nanos numbers; tightening from a 27-point gap at the beginning of the year. The current gap is nearly within the survey’s 3.1 per cent margin of error.
This week’s tracking also shows the NDP at 16 per cent, Bloc Quebecois at eight, Green Party at four and People’s Party at two points.
“[It’s] basically a dead heat; it’s definitely a horse race right now between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” pollster Nik Nanos told CTV News' Trend Line podcast on Wednesday, noting a “massive hemorrhaging of support away from the Conservatives, with the Liberals being the main beneficiary over the last number of weeks.”
That said, Nanos warns that big, rapid swings in partisan support can backfire over time.
“When the polls shift one way very quickly, they can shift back,” he said. “Let’s wait to see whether this trend solidifies, or continues, before the Conservatives are counted out.”
Support fading for NDP
The federal New Democratic Party (NDP) has also seen a dip in polling in recent weeks, a trend Nanos says may be a knock-on effect of the shrinking Conservative lead.
“As the race narrows, or is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals, now we’re seeing some strategic voting,” he said.
“New Democrats, even though they want to vote New Democrat and want the New Democratic Party to do well, are looking at the Liberals, because although they might not like the Liberals, they really don’t like the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre, so they’re strategically voting,” Nanos also noted.
Liberal support reached a decade-long low near the end of 2024, dipping to 20 percentage points following the surprise resignation of former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland from cabinet.
Since Trudeau’s own resignation announcement days into the new year and the emergence of Freeland, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, former Liberal house leader Karina Gould and others in the race to replace him, that trend has reversed rapidly.
The Liberals are polling at or above 30 points in the Nanos numbers for the first time since summer of 2023, when the gap between them and the Conservatives began to widen.
“From past experience, parties without leaders usually do better, but [I’ve] never seen anything like this,” Nanos said. “It’ll be interesting to see how the Liberals do, once they select their leader.”
The Liberal Party of Canada chooses a new leader on March 9.
Donald Trump a ‘game-changer’
Nanos notes that another tailwind for the Liberals has been Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office, what he calls a “game-changer.”
Canada’s relationship with the United States has come under considerable strain in recent months amid Trump’s threats of steep, blanket tariffs on cross-border trade, as well as his frequent allusions to annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state.
In response to an open-ended survey question, just over one in five respondents identified Trump or U.S. relations as the most important national issue of concern, up from just 2.4 per cent roughly a month prior and ahead of jobs and the economy (19.3 per cent), health care (9.4) and inflation (7.2).
It’s an opportunity in the political moment that the Conservatives failed to seize upon early, Nanos said.
“At the beginning, they were still talking about carbon taxes, and all that … I think they kind of missed the boat,” he told Trend Line.
“People were like, ‘Hey! Trump’s going to slap a 25 per cent tariff; what are you doing, talking about the carbon tax, that [it] looks like the Liberals don’t even want to do anymore … why are you attacking Mark Carney’s shoes when, like, the house could be on fire, or blown up by Donald Trump?’”
Nanos adds that the reversal of fortunes between the Liberals and Conservatives may reveal how much Conservative support came from dislike of Trudeau, rather than affection for Poilievre -- whose messaging has been compared to Trump’s own.
“The other lesson for the Conservatives is maybe they weren’t as brilliant, and maybe Pierre Poilievre wasn’t as popular as they thought. That they were just ‘not Justin Trudeau,’ and ‘not the Liberals,’” he said. “The Trump issue has kind-of changed the whole dynamic, and how people are looking at all the parties. So, they might not like the Liberals, but they’re really worried about Donald Trump.”
The next Canadian federal election will be held in October of this year, if not called sooner.
For the complete podcast, watch the video at the top of this article, or listen in the player below.
Methodology
Nanos Research conducted a randomized telephone survey of roughly 1,000 Canadian adults over a rolling four-week period. The firm notes that a sample of 1,026 Canadians is accurate to plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This data is accurate to Feb. 21, 2025.
You can read more about Nanos Research’s ballot tracking methodology here.
