Liberals, Conservatives in a 'dead heat' as health-care concerns soar among Canadians: Nanos

TREND LINE: New polling from Nanos Trend Line's Michael Stittle and Nik Nanos break down new polling from Nanos Research showing a surge of support for the Liberals.

With the federal health-care funding deal in the headlines and the state of health care towering over other issues of national concern -- including inflation and the economy -- the federal Liberals seem to be enjoying a corresponding bounce in ballot support and are in a dead heat with the Conservatives.

"The key takeaway here is health care has been on the rise as a top national issue of concern," said Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, on Wednesday's episode of Trend Line.

With the Liberal health-care funding deal – which Canada's premiers have agreed to accept – prominently in the news this past week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been front and centre, "and what you see basically is Liberal numbers showing positive movement over the last four weeks with this focus on health care," said Nanos.

The trend line on Nanos' weekly ballot tracking shows the Conservatives pulling ahead of the Liberals starting back in December, but the Liberals started ascending in mid-January and have closed the gap.

"When we look at the board, at the actual percentages, we can see that it is absolutely a dead heat between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Both of them at 33 percentage points support each," said Nanos.

He added that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre -- who's been hammering Liberals over pocketbook issues, affordable housing and law and order concerns -- has been "largely absent" from the discussion on health care. "So he's kind of ceded territory to the Liberals," said Nanos.

KEEP AN EYE ON THE NDP

Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh's NDP has seen a bump in support and is sitting at 21 per cent in Nanos' weekly ballot tracking. This could be a threat to Liberals, who are in a confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP, if Singh determines Trudeau isn't going far enough in advocating for their progressive agenda.

"That's why the NDP are going to be the ones to watch," said Nanos. "Jagmeet Singh has leverage and he's going to have more leverage, and that's why the Liberals have to be worried, because when those NDP numbers go up into the mid-20s, the Liberals start losing seats to both the New Democrats and the Conservatives."

Nanos said we could expect Singh and Poilievre to "double team" Trudeau in an effort to split voters, "to create those opportunities for both the Conservatives and the NDP to pick up seats at the expense of the Liberals, especially in Ontario. That's where the Liberals can really be at risk in Ontario to some of these splits in British Columbia."

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. Our next episode comes out Wednesday, March 1.