Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, announcing Monday that he intends to resign as Liberal leader and prime minister as soon as his party names his replacement, has set a series of political machinations in motion.
Trudeau, saying he "absolutely" still thinks the Liberals can beat Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, has asked Liberal Party of Canada president Sachit Mehra to immediately initiate a leadership race.
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Beyond confirming that the national board of the party will meet this week to begin the process of setting the parameters and timeline for selecting a new leader, many questions remain about how that campaign will take shape.
It has been more than a decade since the party last ran a federal leadership contest, and at the time the Liberals had been relegated to third-party status. In the years since, Trudeau has been widely credited for rebuilding a party that's now seeking a rebrand.
After some talk of tapping an interim seemed to be squashed by Trudeau calling for "a robust, nationwide, competitive process," MPs were briefed on Monday about the party's constitution and their potential role in the search for the next Liberal leader.
The caucus still has a hybrid in-person and virtual emergency national meeting on the books for Wednesday, for members of Parliament to talk strategy and next steps. Trudeau is expected to attend that meeting.
The Liberals looking to reset and reengage Canadians with a fresh face within a few months has also cast new spotlight on the cadre of long-speculated leadership contenders.
Among them, former central banker Mark Carney, who said Monday that he's "encouraged and honoured by the support" he's already receiving and is "considering this decision closely with my family over the coming few days," and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis, who confirmed Tuesday his intention to run.
"Barring something untoward, I will be announcing formally that I'm in the race, but I'm looking forward to it, and we'll see if there's something in the rules that I didn't expect. But barring that, yes, I'm in the race," Baylis said on CTV News Channel's Power Play.
As potential hopefuls mull their prospects in an expedited race – that may see them before the polls and then in an opposition position within months – Trudeau may have to shuffle his cabinet again soon to replace any potential ministers who step off the front bench to launch their bids.
Many MPs have expressed hope that a leadership race will provide an opportunity to hear new ideas and energize progressives enough to make it so the ballot question in the next campaign is not a referendum on the outgoing prime minister.
Though, with prorogation only staving off the risk of the government falling on a confidence vote until late March, the chances are high that whoever is tapped to be the next Liberal leader will have a considerably short runway to debut their new vision to Canadians.
"We have a lot of very strong contenders to lead our party and the country into the future," said Liberal MP Sameer Zuberi. "So much can change in so little time. And right now, we are stepping forward. I'm really excited personally about what the next weeks have to offer and what we as a party have to showcase to our party membership and to Canadians."
"And I'm confident that we will be able to win government again with a new leader," he said.
Underscoring the condensed time period, former lead Liberal pollster Dan Arnold noted in comments on social media that Trudeau spent more than 40 days after each election and the throne speech working on transition, meaning the next leader "effectively needs to run (a) leadership race, transition and election readiness at (the) same time."
In a press conference on Parliament Hill, Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer was critical of Trudeau's decision to prorogue and put off the waiting parliamentary pressure until March "all so that the Liberal party can sort out its internal mess."
"Once again, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have proven that they put themselves ahead of the Canadian people," he said. "Nothing will change with a Liberal leadership race."
Risk of foreign interference?
The Liberals will be the first federal party to run a leadership race since the Hogue Commission concluded that foreign governments attempted to interfere in previous nomination races.
A report last summer from the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians – meanwhile – determined there were "two specific instances where [People's Republic of China] officials allegedly interfered in the leadership races of the Conservative Party of Canada."
Asked by CTV News whether the Liberal party plans on making changing to its voting process to protect against potential foreign meddling, director of communications Parker Lund said in an email statement that the “party remains committed to working with the Commissioner of Canada Elections, law enforcement, or any other bodies that are tasked with pursuing election irregularities if there is sufficient evidence.”
Lund added that the party is a “grassroots movement” that has built an “open and inclusive process” that “ensures we hear from more people in the communities we engage with and helps foster civic engagement with those who may one day have the privilege to vote in a federal election.”
Lund also said the party looks forward to sharing more details about the leadership process once the rules have been determined.
Elections Canada has previously suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates as they could be more vulnerable to foreign governments.
To register with the Liberals, a person must be at least 14-years-old, not be a member of another federal political party, and live in Canada or be qualified to vote from abroad.
With files from CTV News' Stephanie Ha
