As Canadians’ concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump rise, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative polling advantage appears to have evaporated, with the Liberals now just one point behind according to the latest Nanos numbers.
In new weekly tracking released Tuesday, the Conservatives are at 36 per cent support, the Liberals – now under the leadership of Mark Carney – have risen to 35 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent.
The data indicates Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the race to replace him, combined with the deteriorating Canada-U.S. relationship, have resulted in a dramatic shift in Canadian public opinion.
Over the last four weeks, Trump and U.S. relations have moved into the top spot as the issue most concerning to Canadians, outpacing voters’ worries about jobs and the economy.
Over this period, the Conservatives’ national ballot numbers have also slipped, while support for the Liberals has risen. A month ago, the Conservatives had a nearly 20-point lead on the Liberals.
“The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 35.7 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34.7 per cent, the NDP at 14.9 per cent, the BQ at 7.9 per cent, the Greens at 3.8 per cent and the People’s Party of Canada at 2.1,” the report states.
These numbers are based on polling that ended March 7 – two days before Carney’s landslide leadership win.
When asked who Canadians preferred as prime minister, Poilievre still came out on top over Trudeau.
Though, the outgoing prime minister’s favourability is at a 12-month high, whereas Poilievre’s current standing on what Nanos calls his “power index” is down from where he sat one year ago.
Carney, Poilievre messaging on Trump
In his victory speech, prime minister-designate Carney vowed to take on Trump and Poilievre with strength.
“Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer. Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered,” he said.
Carney also committed that his government would keep the pressure on the U.S. until the Trump administration shows some “respect.”
Responding to the election of his new federal rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sought to frame Carney as someone who would “sell out Canada for his personal profit.”
In his press conference on Monday, Poilievre was asked whether he’d instructed his caucus and candidates to not wear “MAGA” [Make America Great Again] merchandise given the current circumstances.
“My instruction is that we should put Canada first,” Poilievre said in response. “I’ve also made it clear to my members of Parliament that we should favour bringing jobs back to Canada, not move them to the United States of America, as Mark Carney did when he had the chance.”
President’s tariff threats continue
Just this morning, Canadians woke up to two new Trump social media posts threatening the country, in light of the government keeping retaliatory tariffs and other trade measures in place.
In one post, Trump called Canada a “tariff abuser.” In a second, he declared that 25 per cent steel and aluminum tariffs, expected tomorrow, would be doubling to 50 per cent.
But by mid-day, the message from the Oval Office had changed.
With Ontario Premier Doug Ford backtracking on his 25 per cent electricity surcharge, Trump said he’d “probably” look at pulling back on his decision to hike tariffs.
There’s also still the looming imposition of reciprocal tariffs April 2, and the end of the latest one-month reprieve of the 25 per cent tariffs on goods and autos covered under the so-called new NAFTA or Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Methodology: Nanos Research conducted a randomized telephone survey of 1,052 Canadians aged 18 years and over, ending March 7, 2025. The margin of error is 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
