As the race to name the next Liberal leader nears the finish line, speculation is swirling that the winner could be angling to seize on the party’s current momentum and call a snap election soon after.
But party data suggests two of the three major parties could use some more time to get campaign-ready, with the Liberals and NDP trailing the Conservatives when it comes to picking candidates, and more still left to lock-in than they have nominated so far.
As of Feb. 18, the Conservatives have nominated 234 candidates. The Liberals have selected 147 candidates. The NDP are close behind them with 143 candidates named so far.
Conservatives see people ‘stepping up’
While recent polling shows Conservative support may be slipping from the 20-point lead they had long been enjoying, the political wind in party leader Pierre Poilievre’s sails for the last few years has helped him recruit.
In addition to confirming the candidacies of his MPs, Poilievre has brought in a series of politicians from other levels of public office, and business leaders.
“What you’re seeing is a lot of people are stepping up who want to be a part of that change, and they see obviously, a lot of opportunity to have a seat at the table and kind of drive that,” said Jamie Ellerton, founding partner of Conaptus Ltd. and a former Conservative campaign staffer.
“I think it’s taking people who perhaps have been on the sidelines in the past saying, ‘now is the time to put my name forward and serve my community.’”
Ellerton said the party has prioritized naming candidates in ridings where the Conservatives see their best chances of picking up seats, to give those contenders more time to gain traction with prospective constituents.
He added that whether Conservative candidates are facing off against a cabinet minister or rookie, their strategy will be the same: running against the Trudeau track record.
Liberals losing ‘incumbency benefit’
Since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation triggered the search for his successor, the Liberal party said it has seen an uptick in Canadians interested in running for them in the coming campaign.
But, with dozens of cabinet ministers and MPs not re-offering, they’ll be down a lot of senior campaigners in ridings across the country this time around.
“Anytime you lose an MP, there’s usually an incumbency benefit that comes with that,” said Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and Trudeau’s former lead research strategist. “So, the fact that there’s a lot of Liberal MPs who aren’t running again, that will make it more challenging.”
Arnold said the incumbency effect can account for a two-to-five per cent boost in support, which can make a difference in a close race.
He attributed the degree of turnover the Liberals will see after this election to both the number of MPs who have served for a decade or more that are now ready to move on, as well as the fact that the next federal vote has long looked to not be in their favour.
Arnold said if the current polling numbers are the start of a trendline, the Liberals could be buoyed and better positioned to recruit strong candidates.
“I remember even back in lead up to 2015 election campaign, I was doing the polling for the Trudeau Liberals, and we would do surveys for people to show, ‘Hey, you can win this seat if you run for us.’ And that was actually a way to kind of get a lot of high-profile candidates … to actually put their name out there, because they felt they actually had a chance to win,” Arnold said.
NDP have more than 200 candidates to still name
The federal New Democrats have arguably had the most control over the timing of the next election, and faced intense pressure during the final months of the fall sitting to help the other parties trigger a snap vote.
But, since Trudeau prorogued Parliament, that power was taken away from the opposition.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s campaign lead recently issued a memo to candidates urging them to be election-ready the day after the March 9 Liberal leadership vote.
Asked this week what was preventing the NDP from securing more candidates by now, Singh said his party will “be election-ready when an election comes.”
With more nomination meetings scheduled, the NDP’s National Director Anne McGrath said she’s not worried about currently needing to name more candidates than they’ve approved so far, noting the governing party is not much farther ahead.
“All sorts of factors come into play, and for me, it’s not a huge concern, because I have spent, oh I don’t know, decades with people asking me why we don’t have enough candidates, and wondering whether we will have enough candidates, and then always having a candidate in every riding,” McGrath said.
She also noted that the NDP has a policy in which approval is needed to proceed with a nomination that doesn’t include an “equity candidate.”
Greens ‘will have a full slate’
As for the Greens, the party is still vetting “a lot of” its nominees, according to co-leader Elizabeth May.
But at an event unveiling a fresh party logo on Parliament Hill on Tuesday, May told reporters she’s not nervous about having candidates running in all ridings.
“We will have a full slate by the writ drop,” May said, adding that the party expects to win “a lot more” seats in the next election.
“And it’s not based on some sort of pie-in-the sky vision for the future, it’s based on great candidates with strong teams that who are assembling across the country,” May said.
‘You can always find candidates’
Insiders from the main three parties said naming candidates in all ridings is less of the challenge, compared to ensuring you have enough time to vet them.
“You can always find candidates,” Arnold said. “It’s not hard to plug a name in a riding… the question is whether or not you can find good candidates, if you can find candidates who have been properly vetted.”
“You don’t want to put people out there who you haven’t done background checks on, because then you’re dealing with the controversy of the day when their old tweets come out.”
When seeking the nomination, hopefuls do have to submit extensive information about their personal and professional history, including their past social media posts. Vetting these submissions for any outstanding nominees is likely happening right now.
Those who spoke to CTV News suggested the parties all likely have spreadsheet, or some closely held list of potential candidates they’d be able to approach in a pinch.
“We have approved packages for many, many more ridings that we will proceed with very quickly once we know exactly when the election is going to be,” McGrath said.
These lists could include those who have expressed interest but are waiting to confirm their intent depending on the political landscape at the time of the election call, or those higher-profile or star candidates who for professional reasons can’t come forward yet.
“The question is really, behind the scenes, do the parties have leads in most of these ridings or not?” Arnold said.
Ellerton said that while party headquarters typically keep nomination processes close to the vest, they would know where there are outstanding competitive races to become the candidate.
“And just moving up dates and/or scheduling those dates to get those candidates in place… that process would wrap up in a matter of days, if a snap election is called,” he said.
And, despite the parties bracing for an election call imminently after the Liberals name their new leader, Arnold cautioned: “There’s going to be a lot of election readiness work to happen after… which means it’s not just as simple as saying, ‘Okay, March 10, we’re into an election campaign.’”
