MONTREAL — Six months ago, the Bloc Québécois captured a Liberal bastion in a Montreal byelection, and polls indicated the party was in official Opposition territory, with Justin Trudeau at the helm of a floundering Liberal party.
But the political ground has shifted considerably since. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet will need to find his footing in a campaign dominated by U.S.-Canada relations and the mercurial personality President Donald Trump, who has slapped 25 per cent tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminum, and has threatened to impose more duties in April.
“There was a chance to go back to the good old days of the Bloc Québécois,” André Lamoureux, a political scientist at Université du Québec à Montréal, and Bloc supporter, said in a recent interview, referencing the 1993 federal election when the Bloc became official Opposition.
In September, the Bloc won a longtime Liberal Montreal riding — Lasalle—Émard—Verdun — by fewer than 300 votes. But Blanchet didn’t try to work with the NDP to bring down the minority Liberal government. Instead, Blanchet was content to try and extract gains from the shaky Liberal party, which had dropped precipitously in the polls.
In December, Blanchet remained modest about the prospect of forming the official Opposition in a year-end interview with The Canadian Press. Poll aggregator Canada338.com had the Bloc at around 45 seats, a distant second to the Conservatives — but likely good enough for Blanchet to get the keys to Stornoway: the Opposition leader’s official residence in Ottawa.
But that stately home is seemingly out of reach now. After Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberals — now under Prime Minister Mark Carney — have climbed up the polls and are competitive once again with the Conservatives. The Bloc, however, could still find itself holding the balance of power if the result of the election — expected to called on Sunday — results in a third, consecutive minority government.
“It will be a victory if he maintained a good number of MPs,” Lamoureux said. “But that would still be a disappointment compared to the potential they had last fall.”
The U.S. president and the arrival of Carney mean a tremendous amount of uncertainty for the Bloc, which only runs candidates in Quebec’s 78 ridings, said Philippe J. Fournier, editor-in-chief of Canada338.com.
“If you had called me in January, my answer would have been radically different than what I’m telling you now,” Fournier said of the Bloc. “And if you call me a month from now, maybe my answer would be radically different from what I’m telling you today.”
On the eve of an election, the Bloc needs to watch its back as it has already been passed by the Liberals in Quebec, according to several polls, Fournier says. His site’s latest numbers have the Bloc winning about 25 seats — down from the 32 they’ve won in back-to-back elections under Blanchet.
Some polls have the Liberal lead in Quebec in double digits, which could translate into massive seat losses for the Bloc. Fournier believes they’ll need to rally to get back to the 32 seats they have now.
On Thursday, the Bloc announced its campaign slogan — “Je choisis le Québec!” (I choose Quebec.)
Last week, Blanchet said the upcoming election will be one “fraught with danger for Quebec — trade, immigration, language and secularism, regions, seniors, the environment … but also one of opportunity.”
Lamoureux said he believes the Bloc erred with a tepid response to Trump’s threats.
“In my opinion, (the Bloc) should have launched itself as a political force wanting to block the road, and that’s by saying they agree to impose tariffs to block Trump,” Lamoureux said. “They didn’t do it, and that’s what Quebecers wanted, not just Canadians.”
While all parties were in agreement that Canada should impose retaliatory duties on the U.S., Blanchet admitted he was wrong to think that Trump wouldn’t carry out his threats to start a trade war.
Université Laval political scientist Éric Montigny said that for the first time since Blanchet became party leader in 2019, he’s going into a federal election facing headwinds.
“What we see in the political landscape with the arrival of Mr. Trump’s election is that there is less oxygen … for parties like the NDP or the Bloc Québécois in the public debate,” Montigny said.
Fournier says that for Quebecers, the Bloc is a “none-of-the-above party” — the choice for voters who aren’t interested in the federalist Liberals, Conservatives of NDP.
“That’s a good position to be in because if Mr. Carney stumbles in the campaign in Quebec, those votes probably are going to the Bloc,” Fournier said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 22, 2025.
Sidhartha Banerjee, The Canadian Press
