Lower population estimate doesn’t sway Planning Committee to reduce Urban Growth Boundary expansion

The Planning and Environment Committee has forged ahead with a significant expansion to London’s Urban Growth Boundary.

The Planning and Environment Committee (PEC) forged ahead with a significant expansion to London’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), despite revised population estimates that could impact how much new residential land the city will need in the coming decades.

The UGB restricts where residential development can occur within the city limits in order to ensure orderly growth and prevent sprawl.

In August, Ontario’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) slashed its population projection for London to 686,733 in 2051.

The new long-term estimate is 55,051 residents lower than data released in 2024 by the MOF that estimated London would reach 741,785 in 2051.

Former City Coun. Sandy Levin wrote a letter to PEC arguing that the change justifies adding less land within the UGB than currently proposed by the land needs assessment.

“Use the lower figure based on the 2025 Ministry projections as you can course correct [upwards] in five years at the next required Official Plan review,” Levin urged in a letter to PEC members. “The current figure of roughly 1,476 hectares contravenes the PPS (Provincial Policy Statement) by providing a supply beyond 30 years.”

However, the London Development Institute and London Homebuilders’ Association urged the committee to continue with the recommended expansion to the UGB.

“Ensuring that we have enough land and enough land supply as a way to combat housing affordability is going to be one of the key pieces here,” said Jared Zaifman, CEO of the London Homebuilders’ Association. “I think this is on a good trajectory now, and we certainly encourage council to stay down this path.”

Deputy Mayor Shawn Lewis dismissed Levin’s suggestion.

“To suggest that now almost a year into this work, that we should go to a lower number, is not a conversation I’m even interested in spending five minutes on.” Lewis told colleagues on PEC.

“[If] we change the number, we change the goalpost, and we’re back to another year’s worth of work to get back,” he warned. “And then what? We’re going to change to the next set of Ministry numbers? At some point we have to say this was the starting line, these are the numbers we’re working from, and we need to make some decisions.”

The planning committee recommended staff continue consultation on the draft Urban Growth Boundary Expansion with the community, development industry, and local Indigenous communities.

It is anticipated that a final recommended UGB expansion will be presented to a future meeting of Council and forwarded to the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing before the end of this year.