Low voter turnout in these 8 ridings made a difference in Canada’s last election

Canadians’ voting patterns can be as diverse and varied as their vast geography. Environics Analytics has broken down some key voting segments and indicators on some key issues in this election. (Environics Analytics)

One of the reasons often cited for voter apathy is a sense that one’s vote doesn’t make a difference. But insights gleaned from Canada’s last election tell a different story and indicate that in some cases, every vote really does count.

Voter turnout stood at 62.6 per cent in Canada’s last federal election in September 2021. That represented about 17.2 million of Canada’s 27.5 million eligible voters at the time.

To better understand how and where low voter turnout made a difference, Environics Analytics looked at eight ridings across the country where there was both low voter turnout and a very close race.

Voter turnout across those areas averaged 52.6 per cent – a full 10 points below the national average in the election. And in all of those ridings, the winning candidate won by a margin of less than five per cent of the vote. In five of the districts, the winner was decided by a margin of no more than three per cent of the vote.

Environics also compiled profiles of different voter segments who make up the population in those ridings in order to get a better understanding of what mattered to those people.

The firm identified 15 different voter segments with similar lifestyle characteristics, demographics and regional voting behaviors in order to get a snapshot of who lives in those areas.

Big city suburbs

Take for example, some of the suburbs around Toronto and Vancouver.

King—Vaughan, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, and Richmond Centre—Marpole all saw low voter turnout, with candidates who won by less than three per cent of the vote.

Voters in those ridings hail overwhelmingly from the voting segment identified by Environics as Big City Burbs.

“It’s very multicultural, but a lot of second-generation Canadians. They’re white-collar service sector jobs. People are reasonably affluent, but they tend to be pretty mortgaged up to the hilt, so there’s not a lot left over,” explained Rupen Seoni, chief client officer at Environics. “They have expensive lifestyles because of debt, large families, commuting, etc., but they also tend not to be terribly politically engaged.”

But that may not be the case this time around, Seoni said in an interview with CTVNews.ca, given the economic threats from U.S. President Donald Trump that have loomed over the election.

“These people don’t have a lot of dollars left over at the end of the day once they pay off all their expenses, and they’re going to be concerned about housing values, about mortgage rates and all that sort of stuff,” Seoni said.

“So are they going to be more motivated to vote this time around? Really, these three ridings are kind of on a bit of a hair’s edge. So whichever party is able to get their supporters out more effectively could create some upsets here.”

Across the country, voters in the Big City Burbs grouping overwhelmingly supported the Liberals in 2021. That would seem to suggest that higher voter turnout there will translate favorably for the Liberals.

However there’s a wrinkle. The second biggest demographic in those ridings is Affluent Families, a segment that tends to lean slightly toward supporting the Conservatives, and who are usually very motivated to vote.

“There’s kind of an apathy in these ridings for whatever reason, or there was last time around, and so I think all the dynamics here that we’re seeing this time around are going to be quite interesting to watch,” Seoni said.

Bloc voters

Francophones aux Villages, another voter segment identified by Environics – made up more than 84 per cent of the Quebec riding of Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj in 2021.

The Liberals won the riding in the last election, but within its new boundaries adjusted after the most recent census, the Bloc Quebecois held the most votes in that race, beating the Liberals by roughly 4.5 percentage points, with an estimated voter turnout of just 57 per cent.

According to Environics, Francophones aux Villages are empty nesters who live in smaller communities around Quebec and New Brunswick. They have modest incomes, but also a low cost of living. They are fond of their rural and small-town roots, are concerned about environmental degradation and look to people they respect for guidance. They tend to vote for the Bloc, with either the Liberals or Conservatives as their second choice.

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“We’re seeing all this talk about how the Bloc is losing votes to the Liberals because Quebec is thinking that the Liberals may be better able to manage the economy is the line of thinking. So this riding is kind of an interesting one, because it was so close last time,” Seoni said.

The second largest voting group in Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj is what Environics refers to as Célibataires et Couples Âgés. The group is comprised of traditional, older singles and couples who live in and around Quebec’s cities, mostly outside of the Montreal area.

Cost of living is important to these voters, many of whom are on a fixed income. They tend to favour the Bloc. However they also value pragmatism and simplicity in their decision making.

Rural Newfoundland

Parts of Atlantic Canada could be another battleground, especially in areas where some voter segments who usually turn out in high numbers bucked that trend in 2021.

Seoni holds up two adjacent ridings where the race was particularly close last time: Central Newfoundland and Long Range Mountains.

“The margin in Central Newfoundland was 0.8 of a per cent and the Conservatives just eked out a win there,” Seoni said. “And this segment that is present in both of those ridings are what we call Older Rustic.”

The group is found throughout English Canada and contains aging, rural couples with modest incomes, according to Environics. In Atlantic Canada, about 20 per cent of the group are Indigenous. They suffer from more chronic health conditions than average, rely on transportation, and tend to vote Conservative in most of the country.

“Anywhere else in Canada other than Atlantic, it’s Conservative all the way (for Older Rustic),” Seoni says. “In Atlantic, it’s a little bit closer. They’re still Conservative, but only a little bit over the Liberals.”

Suburban Nesters make up the next biggest group in the two Atlantic ridings. The group is composed of late-career and retired couples and singles living around mid-sized and smaller cities across English Canada. The group voted Liberal in Atlantic Canada, but Conservative in the Prairies.

Of note, Environics says the grouping is mindful of pocketbook issues that affect them because they don’t always feel secure about their finances.

While there were early projections showing that voters in rural Newfoundland might be swinging over to the Conservatives, Seoni said, polling now shows that they may in fact be swinging back to the Liberals, making these areas another spot to watch.

Youth vote and NDP strong factors in some places

Toronto’s new riding of Spadina-Harbourfront is poised to be another battleground where voter turnout will be key.

Just 53.5 per cent of voters showed up in 2021, when the riding was known as Spadina-Fort York and had slightly different boundaries. The Liberals eked out a close win over the NDP in that race, with a margin of just 2.7 per cent separating the two.

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The riding is almost entirely composed of a grouping Environics refers to as Young in the City.

“The segment is the most likely to vote NDP out of all the segments, although in the Toronto region, they voted Liberal,” Seoni said. “So that’s going to be a bit of a challenging one for the NDP.”

He points to Edmonton Griesbach as another riding where young voters could decide the winner. The area is mainly composed of a segment called Modest Metros. They elected the NDP with 40.4 per cent in 2021, with the Conservatives close behind at 36.3 per cent, and the Liberals garnering just 15 per cent.

A stronger split between the NDP and the Liberals could give the Tories an edge.

“Modest metros is more of a young kind of struggling segment,” Seoni said.

While they have low voter turnout, they are concerned about their financial futures and are not particularly loyal to any one party.

“It is the segment that has the second lowest voter turnout out of all of them, so it really comes down to who can motivate their base to get out, and this is a tough crowd to get to go and vote,” Seoni said.

(In the map interactive below by Esri Canada, scroll through the eight ridings identified by Environics that were close races with low voter turnout in the last election. Then click on the map of the riding in the centre panel to see voter demographic information in the bottom panel. For a full-screen experience of the interactive, click here.)

(For a full-screen experience of the Esri Canada interactive, click here.)

Getting voters to the polls will be key

Seoni said that ultimately, the data “tells a story” about who Canadian voters are and where their concerns lie.

He points out it also shows there are gains to be made for the parties if they are able to motivate people to get out to the ballot box.

“These may be a few ridings where it’s not so much about changing people’s minds,” he said, but rather about “doing something” to make sure voters actually come out.

Environics Analytics and CTV News are both owned by Bell Canada.