Here’s why young voters could tip the federal election

FILE - A voter queues at a poling station to cast their ballot in Toronto's Spadina-Fort York district on Monday September 20, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Generation Z could play a pivotal role in deciding who will form the next Canadian government, that is, if they cast their ballots.

With voting on participating university and college campuses now open until Wednesday, a national non-partisan organization is making sure young and first-time voters are taking part in the electoral process.

“What we know is that for decades, baby boomers have been the largest demographic … Now we have statistical evidence that young people can decide the election, the outcome of the election and the future of this country," said Amanda Munday, executive director of New Majority, which is working to improve youth voter turnout in Canada. She noted that millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) and Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) now make up the electoral majority.

In the last federal election, only 47 per cent of voters between the ages of 18 and 24 cast their ballot, a decline from the 54 per cent turnout in 2019.

Munday attributed the dip to the pause on early voting on campuses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. She is optimistic that voter turnout among young Canadians will bounce back this election with the return of on-campus voting.

“All these factors, to me, suggest we have a really strong chance of seeing increased youth voter turnout,” she said.

New Majority plans to be at universities and colleges across Canada this week to persuade young voters to take advantage of early voting on campus.

“It’s really a myth that young people are apathetic. Really what we’re facing is information and access barriers,” Munday said.

“As a first-time voter who’s never done it before, students in particular, if you’re out of province staying at a residence for university or college, you might be unfamiliar with the community. Students are the only population who can choose between their home riding and their school riding.”

She noted that young and first-time voters want to participate in democracy, and what they need is more guidance on how.

Munday says her organization hopes that voter turnout among young adults will be above 50 per cent.

“I don’t know if a seven per cent lift is realistic, but I certainly pushed to my team that, you know, I really think five per cent is within reach,” she said.

How to get young voters to the polls

The 2015 National Youth Survey commissioned by Elections Canada found that motivation and access have prevented young voters from participating.

According to the survey, Canadian youth feel less strongly that voting will make a difference, and they believe that the government does not care what they think. When it comes to access, the survey found that young voters are less aware of the ways to register and vote and perceive the voting process, such as getting to the polls and proving identity, as too difficult.

Munday says her organization is using a face-to-face campaign, stopping and talking to students to let them know that they can vote on campus and answer other questions about voting.

“They make it fun and a community experience,” she said. “They’re available to answer questions because when we take, more of a like, ‘it’s your civic duty,’ or ‘you have to do this,’ or ‘have you done it yet,’ or a shame-based approach, it’s far less effective than tackling just approaching new voters with an empathy and welcoming lens to say, ‘Hey, I get it. This is new for you and it’s unfamiliar and you might not be sure about what you need or if you’re eligible or what’s involved. And so, we’re here to help you answer your questions so that it’s less scary and you can get to the polls.‘”

Munday added that a face-to-face campaign is better than doing a digital push. She said while social media is effective in spreading awareness, it doesn’t necessarily convert into action.

“It’s great if digital campaigns can let people know that an election is happening, but if you go back to the same barriers I’m talking about, if a young person isn’t sure if they’re eligible, they don’t know where their polling station is, they’re nervous about going for the first time, they might have seen 15 social media posts about the election. That doesn’t change them from getting up and actually going to the polls,” Munday said.

She noted that some social media platforms have blocked news links from being shared, making it hard for young voters to get reputable information about the election.

Top issues for young voters

Munday shared that affordability, in terms of cost of living, tuition, rent and summer jobs, is the top election issue for young voters. It is followed by mental health, climate and Canada’s sovereignty, which she said is new for this election.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to annex Canada, making it the 51st state. Trump’s threats have become the top election issue for many Canadians.

“Our team, we don’t have experience in anyone talking about Canadian annexation or even Canadian sovereignty,” Munday said. “So we’ve had to write some new scripts because it comes up as one of the fourth most common issues on the ground.”

Munday shared that the feedback her team is getting from young voters is that many feel that the parties’ platforms don’t reflect their lived experiences.

“Often that’s one of the biggest barriers to getting young people… is this feeling that politicians don’t listen to them or even that their issues are not platformed,” Munday said.

“And a lot of that has to do with just the language because when you match it up, and you show young people the platforms, they’ll say, ‘okay, I see the platforms. There are some answers here. There’s some promises being made that would address my problems.’ But it’s not in the language that a young person uses.”

She added that her team also would point out to young voters that they are now part of the largest voting block in Canada, which means politicians will have no choice but to listen to their issues.

“We often say, ‘Come with me to the ballot. It’s fun. We’ll go to the polling station right now, we’ll get you the information that you need. And you will feel better for the rest of the week, the month, all through election season, because you know, you did something towards those issues that feel so out of your control,” Munday said.

According to Nanos Research polling, among 18-34 voters, 41 per cent intend to vote for Pierre Poilivere’s Conservatives, while 37 per cent plan to cast their ballot for Mark Carney’s Liberals.

For everything you need to know about the vote on campus program, including the list of participating universities and colleges, click here.