6 in 10 Canadians say election is not the right time to talk about Western separatism: Nanos

Vassy Kapelos explains why the concern of Western secession expressed by Preston Manning in an op-ed is a valid one to discuss.

A majority of Canadians believe Western separatism, a subject that has emerged in this federal election, should be taken seriously, but also say this is not the right time to talk about it.

According to a new Nanos Research survey conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, three in five Canadians think that the issue should be taken seriously (32 per cent) or somewhat seriously (30 per cent).

“A majority of Canadians across all regions and demographic groups believe Western separatism should be taken seriously/somewhat seriously. This intensity increases among committed Conservative and Bloc voters,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, said.

Among the provinces, more than 60 per cent of residents in the Prairies—which are Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba—say Western separatism should be taken seriously or somewhat seriously.

According to Nanos’s latest numbers, the Conservatives dominate the Prairies, so it’s no surprise that about 70 per cent of Tory voters think the issue should be taken seriously or somewhat seriously.

A majority of Bloc Québécois voters also share the same opinion as the Conservatives. While Western separatism has come up this election campaign, in Quebec, talks of independence have taken a back seat as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have become the top issue. It’s reflected in the support for the Bloc, a sovereigntist party, which is behind the Liberals in the province.

The idea of Western provinces separating from the federation gained traction after Preston Manning, the former leader of the Reform Party of Canada, a predecessor of the modern federal Conservative party, wrote in an op-ed in the Globe and Mail that Westerners would not stand for another four years of Liberal government amid Mark Carney’s ascent in public opinion polls.

The Liberal leader and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre both have called for Canadians to unite.

Not the right time

While many Canadians say Western separatism should be taken seriously, six in 10 believe that this is not the right time to talk about it.

The Nanos survey found 35 per cent say it is a “very poor” time for leaders to tackle the issue, while 26 per cent said it is a “poor” time.

Only 32 per cent say the timing to have the conversation is “very good” or “good.”

“Although a minority opinion, people living in the Prairies and British Columbia are comparatively more likely to think that this election is the time to talk about this compared to the rest of Canada,” Nanos said.

In the Prairies, 42 per cent think it is an appropriate time to talk about Western provinces separating, while 47 per cent say it is not the right time.

Political science professor John Soroski told CTV’s Your Morning last week that the current frustrations from Prairie provinces largely stem from perceptions that Ottawa has had a “very poor track record” when it comes to local priorities, such as embracing pipelines and other energy infrastructure.

READ MORE: Western separation is unlikely, Alberta political scientist says. Here’s what might happen instead

While he does not see Alberta or Saskatchewan from separating, Soroski said there would be a “hostile intergovernmental conflict,” especially if Carney becomes prime minister.

With two weeks left until the April 28 voting, the Liberals currently have a seven-point lead over the Conservatives, according to Nanos Research.

Feelings about Canada

Meanwhile, in another survey, 51 per cent of Canadians say the country is “pretty good” but needs improvement. Residents in Quebec and Ontario mostly feel that way.

For 33 per cent of Canadians, they say it is already a “great country.” Most people in the Atlantic region and B.C. share the sentiment.

However, according to 16 per cent of Canadians, the country is “broken.” Among provinces, that viewpoint is strongest in the Prairies.

About 98 per cent of Liberal voters have a positive view of Canada. For Conservatives, 46 per cent think Canada is “pretty good” but “needs improvement,” while 36 per cent believe it is “broken.” Only 14 per cent of Tory voters say Canada is a great country.

Canada’s tariff response

Another Nanos survey on Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs has found that 60 per cent say the country is moving in the right direction, 23 per cent think it’s moving in the wrong direction, and 17 per cent are unsure.

In addition, Liberal voters are much more likely to say it is moving in the right direction (86 per cent) than Conservative voters (31 per cent) or Bloc voters (52 per cent).

Methodology

CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 11 to 13, 2025, n=1,345, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus 19 times out of 20.

With files from CTV News’ Andrew Weichel and The Canadian Press