Political scientist says young voters could ‘shift campaigns,’ but conservatives hold lead in Alberta

As election day looms, CTV News Edmonton's Chelan Skulski looks at the issues most important to young voters.

There are fewer than five days before Canada chooses its next leader and parties are looking to appeal to as many voters as possible - including younger ones.

One Alberta political scientist said it’s a strategy that makes sense considering the impact mobilizing young voters can have.

“Young people coming in in large numbers can shift campaigns,” political scientist Lori Williams, associate professor at Mount Royal University, said.

“We saw that most recently, I would say, in 2015 when Justin Trudeau basically grew the pool of voters that were willing to support the Liberals and young people were a big part of that … So the question becomes, how many of them are going to show up for each party?”

Recent Nanos research showed cost of living was the top issue for Canadian voters aged 18 to 34, with jobs and the economy second and housing following in third.

“I know Pierre has the reduced tax or something like that for the new homeowners, so that’s something that’s kind of been appealing to me,” Rain Mouland told CTV News Edmonton near the University of Alberta on Wednesday.

“I already voted for the Conservative Party,” Zane Raimondi added. “We’ve had 10 years or nine, I think, of the Liberals and we’re at this point, so I want to try something new.”

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Despite polling showing Conservatives remain well ahead of the Liberals (and far ahead of the NDP) in the prairies, New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton Wednesday making his party’s case – including promises of a price cap on grocery essentials and a national rent control.

“We’re going to put a moratorium on corporate landlords buying up affordable homes,” Singh said. “Instead, we are going to increase the renters protection fund so renters can be protected.”

With affordability issues like housing and tax cuts featuring prominently in platforms from the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP, Williams said the vote – for at least some young Canadians – is coming down to leadership.

“And we know that Pierre Poilievre is doing better amongst men in that younger category than in any other category,” she said. “That’s been a demographic that he’s really tried to appeal to and he’s focusing on their sense of frustration, even grievances in some cases.”

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Williams said the gender gap between young men and women is greater when it comes to a preferred leader than in older groups, with Nanos polling showing nearly 39 per cent of men aged 18 to 24 supported Poilievre as leader as opposed to 25 per cent of women.

“You put together the fact that there are things in the Liberal platform that are appealing to women and there doesn’t seem to be much that’s even addressed to women in the Conservative platform, I think it explains one of the reasons why we’re seeing that gap in the younger population,” she added.

Like many young voters, Nyssa Dokken said affordability was a top concern for her.

“About the university, I know that we’re not getting that much funding here, and the university tries to do as much as they can, but tuition fees have to increase to accommodate everyone’s needs,” Dokken said, adding she was likely voting NDP despite liking what Liberal Leader Mark Carney said in the debate.

In the 2021 federal election, voter turnout for Canadians aged 18 to 24 was 46.7 per cent, with 44.7 per cent of Canadians eligible to vote for the first time choosing to do so.

Williams said this year’s record-setting advanced poll numbers suggest more people are engaged and coming out to vote. However, she doubts the NDP will capture as many as the Liberals or Conservatives, despite a platform that might resonate with many of them.

“In spite of the appeal of perhaps specific policies in the NDP platform, it’s just not landing with voters who are basically saying, ‘Well, my favorite candidate can’t win and if I vote for my favorite candidate, it’s going to make it more likely that my least favorite candidate will win. Therefore, I’m going to vote Liberal,’” Williams explained.

As of Wednesday, the latest data showed the Liberals in the lead nationally with 44 per cent. The Conservatives sat at 39 per cent, with the NDP trailing with just eight per cent.

More information on Canada’s party leaders and their platforms can be found on ctvnews.ca.

Canadians will elect their new leader on Monday.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski