Josh Classen's forecast: Arctic air returns, but for how long?

A cold start to the week CTV Edmonton's Cory Edel has your Monday forecast.

Temperatures tumbled through the day Sunday and they're continued to fall this morning.

In fact, I think we'll probably see temperatures drop to around -20 C and then level out through most of the day.

Skies look fairly clear through the morning, but we'll probably get a few clouds this afternoon and then cloudy conditions take over tonight.

Those clouds may give us a few flurries Tuesday morning, and then give way to sunny breaks in the afternoon.

Again, we're expecting temperatures steady near -20 C through much of the day Tuesday.

Wednesday looks like it has real potential for a significant snowfall in the Edmonton region and across areas from the Peace Country southeast toward Lloydminster.

It's a bit early for solid snowfall estimates, but 5-10 cm seems possible (if not likely).

Heavier snow is expected further south, closer to the area of low pressure that'll be making it's way across southern Alberta.

Don't be too surprised if there are snowfall warnings issued for parts of southern and/or south-central Alberta for Wednesday.

There's some significant uncertainty with the temperature pattern beyond Wednesday.

With arctic air, there's often a sharp dividing line between being IN in and OUT of it.

The GFS model wants to push us solidly OUT of the arctic air by Friday, while the Canadian models have the cold air moderating this weekend and then the big warm-up coming Monday.

So, depending on which forecast you're looking at (and what model it's relying on), you're going to see dramatically different temperature forecast for the end of this week and the coming weekend.

I'm reluctantly going with a milder outlook for Friday and the weekend (highs closer to -5 C).

But...the GEM models were generally more accurate with predicting this early-week cold spell and I may need to adjust the Friday-Sunday temperature outlook colder as the week progresses.

Bottom line: The coldest days will be today, Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll be at least a bit milder by the end of the week and possibly MUCH warmer.

AND...once that milder air moves in (whether it's Friday or Monday), it should stick around through next week.

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Sunny with a few clouds.

3pm: -19

Tonight - Cloudy overnight.

9pm: -22

Tuesday - 30% chance of flurries in the morning. Afternoon sunny breaks.

Temperature steady near -20 through most of the day

Wednesday - Cloudy with a 70% chance of snow. Several centimetres likely.

Morning Low: -21

Afternoon High: -18

Thursday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: -22

Afternoon High: -15

Friday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of snow.

Morning Low: -16

Afternoon High: -6