Edmonton mayor’s defeat in federal election surprises political pundit

Edmonton's mayor, a former school board trustee and a well-liked NDP candidate all lost their bids for federal seats on Monday.

Progressive politicians in Edmonton did not perform as well as some pundits predicted Monday night despite having some high-calibre candidates in competitive ridings.

Amarjeet Sohi’s defeat in Edmonton Southeast was arguably the highest profile one. Edmonton’s mayor finished second to Conservative winner Jagsharan Singh Mahal by more than 6,500 votes.

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The northside riding held by the NDP flipped to the right, with incumbent Blake Desjarlais going down in defeat to Conservative Kerry Diotte in Edmonton Griesbach by more than 5,000 votes, a result that appears to come from a vote split on the left.

In Edmonton Centre, the Liberals held on to the seat that had been held by Randy Boissonault. Eleanor Olszewski’s win in the core riding came at the expense of the NDP’s Trisha Estabrooks, the former journalist and school board chair who was considered a star candidate. She finished in third place.

Olszewski said Tuesday she didn’t expect the vote in her riding to be divided between her party, the Conservatives and the NDP.

“We never really thought it was a three-way split,” she told CTV News Edmonton. “I know some people did, but my team and I really didn’t think so. That’s not what we heard at the doors.”

Political analyst John Brennan said Tuesday he was surprised at the result in Edmonton Southeast, where Sohi finished well behind Singh.

He said Sohi’s record on city council appeared to have caught up to him on a federal election night in which the Liberal Party of Canada won a minority government, with Alberta turning even more Conservative blue.

Brennan said his shock stems from the idea that the new riding has a strong base of Liberal support.

Sohi finished 15 percentage points behind Mahal.

“This goes back decades, back when David Kilgour was the Liberal MP for Edmonton Mill Woods,” Brennan said. “The fact that Sohi had won there in 2015 and that he had high name recognition there having been a city councillor and, of course, the mayor.”

His surprise is also rooted in the Liberals’ gains in the popular vote. This year, the party earned 28 per cent of it in Alberta. In 2021, it had just 15 per cent.

“I did think with the Liberals doubling their popular vote from four years ago that Amarjeet Sohi had a legitimate chance to win in Edmonton Southeast,” Brennan told CTV News Edmonton. “When he lost last night –and lost big, like he was clobbered – that surprised me.”

Brennan says the South Asian vote skewed right in Monday’s election in parts of Edmonton, Calgary and Brampton, Ont.

Mahal told CTV News Edmonton on Tuesday that voters registered their displeasure with Sohi’s recent civic record.

“People were not happy with the performance Mr. Mayor had given to the city for the last couple of years,” said Mahal, a local lawyer. “That was always at the forefront.”