Alberta separation ‘not economically’ viable, economist says

After saying she would respect the outcome of a separation vote, Alberta's premier says she is hopeful about the province's relationship with Ottawa.

First Nations leaders say Alberta would lose access to resources on treaty territory should the province choose to break ties with the federation – it’s one of several factors one economist said makes the conversation around separation a “nonstarter.”

Smith has been facing questions around a possible separation referendum since the day after the federal election, when her party introduced legislation to make it easier for citizens to trigger one.

While the premier has repeatedly said she does not support leaving Canada, she has promised to honour the wishes of Albertans and said she would include a separation question on next year’s planned referendum ballot should citizens meet the criteria.

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Treaty Chiefs held an emergency meeting on Tuesday about the possibility, calling any talk of separation “insanity” and threatening to curtail any development of resources on their land.

“Why should we allow you guys to continue to explore on our traditional territories if you want to leave?” Chief Allan Adam of Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation said.

“If separation does happen it won’t be on the terms they would like to see, because the resources belong to us, to our people, that’s a fundamental right we have,” added Grand Chief of Treaty 8 of Alberta Trevor Mercredi.

Economist Moshe Lander said that would be just one of multiple economic blows to consider as part of the cost of leaving Canada.

“Anything that is currently done by the federal government now would need to be done by the province of Alberta,” Lander said. “You need your own version of the RCMP, you’d have to have your own border control because you now have international borders.”

He adds Alberta would also need to fund its own national parks, passports, currency and central bank – all of which could take billions of dollars and decades to establish.

“The idea that Alberta could go it alone is a complete nonstarter. It cannot be economically viable, it is not going to work,” he said.

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Nanos Research recently polled 432 Albertans on the best scenario for a strong provincial economy. Most, 64 per cent, believe the province needs to stay part of Canada.

Twenty per cent said the economy would be stronger as an independent country and 10 per cent would like to join the U.S.

Smith has not answered questions about what separation could look like should Albertans vote to leave Canada, saying it remains a hypothetical situation and one her government does not support.

“That’s up to constitutional scholars and lawyers to discuss,” Smith told CTV Power Play’s Vassy Kapelos.

“There is no question, there is no petition campaign, there is no vote,” she added. “All there is is me saying that I support a sovereign Alberta within the united Canada … If citizens garner enough signatures, it will be put on a ballot, but it’s certainly not something we’re doing as a government.”

Smith said she hopes constructive conversations with the federal government can help alleviate some of the dissatisfaction some Albertans are feeling.

“Let’s not demonize people. Let’s acknowledge that the feelings that they have have a root, and the root is in the way Alberta has been treated for the last 10 years by the Liberals,” Smith said.

“That’s genuine, and I’m being very direct with the Prime Minister and saying, ‘If we can solve some of these things, I think that will bring the temperature down.’ And that’s what I’ll continue to do.”

A referendum vote is planned for 2026. It will include popular proposals discussed at town halls as part of the Alberta Next panel on how the province can protect itself from perceived threats from the Liberal government.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski