Why Canada may not have a traditional La Nina winter this year, according to a climatologist

Climatologist David Phillips explains what the La Nina weather phenomenon could mean for winter in Canada.

Canada may not have a traditional La Nina winter this year again due to factors such as global warming and the “Pacific blob,” says a climatologist.

“There’s certainly a hint that we’re going to have a winter, but I don’t think it will be as brutal or strong as it was traditionally back, say 20 or 30 years ago,” David Phillips of Environment and Climate Change Canada said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca from Barrie, Ont., on Tuesday.

He said he is basing his remarks on data, such as ocean temperatures and historic patterns.

La Nina is a major climate pattern of unusually cool waters near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to The Weather Network.

La Nina would typically lead to cooler northerly air in Canada, Phillips said, resulting in a winter that is colder and snowier than normal.

A La Nina winter often means colder conditions in Western Canada, Phillips said. Eastern parts of the country, meanwhile, will usually see a mixed bag of weather, including snow and freezing rain, he added.

Areas along the West Coast and near the Great Lakes would typically have wetter conditions because of La Nina, The Weather Network reported. In addition, the Atlantic hurricane season would be more intense, according to the news outlet.

But over the past decade, winters have been milder than usual, even during La Nina events, Phillips said.

Canadian winters on average nationwide have been 3.7 C warmer than normal since 1948, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Climate change has been a major factor behind the weather, Phillips added.

What’s more, La Nina is currently weak, he said, which means its impact may not be as strong.

The "Pacific blob" complicates the situation, he added. The blob is a huge area of warm water across the northern Pacific, he said, likening it to a “marine heat wave.”

Still, it’s uncertain how the blob of warm waters and La Nina will affect one another, Phillips added.

“It’s a guess as to the kind of winter that we’re going to see,” he said.