StatCan releases new projections on Canada’s population for 2075

A sign outside a building at Statistics Canada in seen in Ottawa on Friday, March 12, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang

Statistics Canada has released new population projections that paint a picture of a rapidly changing Canada over the next half-century.

The latest projections, covering the period from 2025 to 2075, suggest Canada’s population – estimated at 41.7 million in mid-2025 – will continue to grow under all scenarios examined by the agency.

Under a medium-growth scenario, the total population could reach 57.4 million in 2075, while a high-growth pathway projects the population could climb as high as 75.8 million by the same year.

Even under a low-growth outlook, Canada is expected to see its population rise to at least 44 million by 2075, according to StatCan.

In the release, StatCan clarified that population projections are not predictions, but rather scenarios based on current trends and plausible future developments. The projections consider recent demographic trends, including historically low fertility rates and changes to immigration and temporary resident policies.

Across the country, the projections indicate that Ontario and Quebec will remain the most populous provinces for decades to come, maintaining their demographic dominance through 2050. Meanwhile, Alberta is expected to surpass B.C. in population in most scenarios.

Smaller provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia are projected to see their share of the national population decline over the next 25 years.

In contrast, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to gain a large share of Canada’s overall population, the report said.

Largest drop

In a December release, Canada recorded its steepest population decline on record, driven largely by changes to immigration policy, federal estimates showed.

In its preliminary 2025 Q3 release, Statistics Canada estimated the country’s population at around 41.6 million, as of Oct. 1 - a decrease of roughly 76,000 people between July and October.

The drop was mainly the result of a significant decline in non-permanent residents. Their numbers fell by more than 176,000 over the quarter, the largest decrease since comparable data has been tracked, the agency said.

As of Oct. 1, 2025, Canada was home to about 2.8 million non-permanent residents, representing 6.8 per cent of the population, down from roughly three million, or 7.3 per cent, on July 1.

The shift coincided with a record of 339,303 temporary permits expiring during the period, while just 163,026 new permits were issued.

With files from CTVNews.ca’s Luca Caruso-Moro