‘Starting to be a bit of a trend’: Employment outlook looking up as 2025 nears end

An up-and-down 2025 for the Canadian economy appears to be ending on a higher note.

Statistics Canada says job numbers in November were stronger than expected, thanks to growth in a few key sectors.

“We had a much stronger jobs report than we were expecting, and it’s starting to be a bit of a trend,” said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial chief economist.

“We see the unemployment rate coming down, and it really is being led by Alberta.”

Parsons said Alberta’s labour market in 2025 was characterized by more jobs and even more people.

“So, the struggle has been, ‘Can the jobs be created at the pace?’” he said.

“People are coming here looking for work, and more recently, we’ve seen evidence that is happening.

“The unemployment rate has now fallen to basically the national level, just 6.5 per cent, and that’s really good news.”

The unemployment rate in Alberta fell 1.3 per cent, and jobs were added to a stabilizing market—jobs like the one Michael Merritt will start on Monday.

Merritt said he had a time finding that job.

It took three months.

“I’m not sure how many actual people looked at my CV or job applications,” he said.

“There was a lot of silence for a while. And then I get about a rejection a day from something that I can’t even remember if I applied to it a month ago.

Merritt said perseverance is key.

“It’s not fun and it’s quite demoralizing, but I suppose the more job applications you put in, the more response you’re going to get,” he said.

But things are looking up, helped by gains in industries like health care and accommodation.

Even Alberta’s much-publicized youth unemployment rate is creeping back down to the national average.

“It was a perfect storm for youth because you had a surge of migration to Alberta very, very much focused on young people coming to the province, and they were competing over few jobs,” Parsons said.

Cristina Schultz, About Staffing recruitment manager, said she’s seeing a specific trend.

“A tremendous amount of contracts and temporary employees, because there’s less risk for an organization to go that route versus hiring someone full-time permanently and then needing to lay them off in three (or) six months down the way,” she said.

Schultz said 2025 saw businesses “in a state of limbo” due to “not knowing what to do with all of the potential repercussions of the political climate.”

“So, I think as we approach 2026, this month especially, we’re really starting to see things pick up,” she said.

Economists will be watching a few industries closely.

They want to see a pickup in some of those goods-producing sectors like manufacturing and oil and gas.

It’s still too early to build Alberta’s recently signed memorandum of understanding with the federal government into job forecasts, but a growing energy industry would add a lot to Alberta and Canada’s labour markets.

Economists are almost unanimously predicting the central bank will hold its benchmark rate next week.

“I’d be very, very surprised if they lowered interest rates next week,” Parsons said.