Separation talk if Liberals win ‘not a realistic movement for change,’ political scientist says

Even before Monday's vote, there is talk another Liberal win in the federal election could spark western separatist sentiment.

There’s already talk of what Monday’s federal election could mean for western separatist sentiment and the people who claim they’re more ready than ever before to leave Canada.

If the polls hold and Mark Carney’s Liberals form government, expect to hear a lot of talk about Alberta—and maybe even Saskatchewan and British Columbia—leaving the nation.

In fact, recent polling from Angus Reid shows there’s an appetite for secession that only grows if the Liberals win another term.

One expert chalks it up to nothing more than a sore loser’s pipe dream.

“This movement is likely a frustration or a protest vote at this point,” University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley said.

“It’s not a realistic movement for change.”

The push to separate goes back decades but gained perhaps its biggest modern head of steam after the 2019 election.

Those vote results produced “Wexit” and brought hundreds out to well-attended rallies in both rural areas and cities.

In 2025, groups like the Republican Party of Alberta have taken up the cause.

They’re organizing around the feeling the West’s energy and financial interests are being ignored.

Wesley says he understands the frustration, but that doesn’t change the idea’s popularity problem—or its complicated logistics.

“What’s changed now is that folks are not just thinking about Alberta being an independent country, but they’re thinking about the possibility of being absorbed into or annexed by the United States, or willfully joining,” he said.

“Those are three very, very different options that I think the separatist movement—as small as it is—is grappling with internally.”

So, is there cause for alarm if you live in Western Canada and don’t have an appetite to leave?

Wesley’s advice is to not worry about it.

“We asked people not just, ‘Do you want to leave Canada?’ but, ‘How likely do you think it would be?’” he said.

“Even the hardline separatists—the folks that are the most committed to the cause—don’t believe it’s a real possibility.”

Political push?

A list circulated by the Republican Party of Alberta alleges 11 UCP MLAs are on board the separation train.

CTV News heard from a number of those MLAs, who all denied the claims with almost-identical statements saying they were focused on a “unified Canada.”

Premier Danielle Smith also sent a statement saying she’s not in favour of separating, despite some critic claims to the contrary.

“Although our caucus supports a strong and sovereign Alberta within a United Canada, I recognize that many Albertans are disenfranchised after many years of Liberal and NDP backed governments in Ottawa repeatedly attacking our provincial economy and way of life,” her statement reads.

The statement goes on to mention “a citizen-initiated referendum law that allows concerned citizens to put forward policies for referendums.”

Smith says if there is support for independence, “that process is the proper avenue for citizens to bring it forward for all Albertans to have a say on.”