Possible fractures showing in Premier Danielle Smith’s caucus

With a couple of MLAs falling out and a couple of storms brewing, cracks may be starting to show in Danielle Smith’s majority government.

On Monday, Smith was asked if she is worried about any fractures in her government over Alberta sovereignty.

“I don’t intend for the United Conservative Party to become a single-issue party. We intend to continue to support their founding documents … we are supporting constitutional sovereignty within the united Canada,” Smith said.

In March, Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair was booted from caucus for voicing displeasure with the province’s proposed budget.

Then in April, Peter Guthrie was expelled after he spoke out about how the province is handling the Alberta Health Services procurement controversy.

Sinclair and Guthrie are currently sitting as independents.

“Two years into the government’s mandate, and it’s a very interesting and less certain time than we might imagine,” said Trevor Harrison, professor emeritus of political sociology at the University of Lethbridge.

In late April, UCP operative Cameron Davies left to start the Republican Party of Alberta.

His party is pushing for separation.

“A lot of Albertans and possibly even some people within her party—there are some gung-ho about the idea of separating and perhaps becoming an American 51st state,” said Harrison.

“But I suspect there’s a number of them, also, saying this is not something we signed on to.”

Adding pressure is the Recall for Change movement, which is looking to force a recall election in constituencies from the 2023 general election.

“The UCP government is misleading us in so many ways,” said Jenny Yeremy, lead for Calgary Bow, Recall for Change.

“There’s many ways that this government is abusing their power and abusing the rule of law and we want to do something about it.”

The group will look to use the Recall Act, which, under recent amendments, would require signatures of 60 per cent of the total number of electors who voted in 2023 and a clear reason for removal.

It is looking at forcing recall in Calgary-Bow and Calgary-North West, which were narrowly won by the UCP.

The current MLA for Calgary-Bow is Demetrios Nicolaides, who is the province’s minister of education.

“Privatization of Alberta education and the polluting of our education,” said Yeremy.

There are also three byelections that need to happen—Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Ellerslie and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.

The UCP occupies 46 of 87 seats in legislature, while the NDP holds 36.

The Recall for Change movement hopes to remove the UCP’s majority.

Harrison says it is possible the movement could get support.

“Certainly, if there’s enough people in those ridings who are very upset with those MLAs,” said Harrison.

Naheed Nenshi is set to run in the Edmonton-Strathcona byelection in an effort to replace former NDP leader Rachel Notley.

The NDP has grown frustrated with the time it has taken for Smith to call a byelection.

“While Albertans have come to expect these kinds of games from this government, delaying the byelection that will allow the leader of the opposition into the house is unprecedented. We urge the premier to call the byelection in Edmonton-Strathcona without further unnecessary delay,” said NDP executive director Garett Spelliscy.

On her weekly radio show, the premier said, “I didn’t want to interfere with the federal election as well, so we’ll be announcing very soon. The byelections have to be called by June 30. They’ll be called before then.”