Increased fire danger risk in Alberta due to warm and dry September

Windier conditions, some showers on the way. Jodi Hughes has a look at the five-day forecast from the Sky Watch Weather Centre.

Temperatures this month have been warmer than average across southern Alberta, while the conditions have been mostly dry.

Historically, September is the fifth-wettest month in the city of Calgary with an average of 37.1 millimetres of rain.

According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, as of Sept. 24, there has been 0.2 millimetres of rain this month in Calgary, and the temperatures have been above seasonal.

The average high in Calgary for the start of September is 21 C with an average high at the end of the month closer to 15 C.

As of Wednesday, the daily highs have been above 20 C every day but one (it was 18 C on Sept. 4).

There have been 15 days this month with highs over 24 C, and 11 of those 15 days recorded highs over 25 C.

The combination of hot, dry, and windy weather has amplified the fire danger risk across much of the province and especially in southern Alberta.

The current fire danger risk for most of the province on Thursday morning sits between “very high” and “extreme”.

The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System fire danger assessment is a relative index of risk evaluating “how easy it is to ignite vegetation, how difficult a fire may be to control, and how much damage a fire may do.”

According to the Alberta Wildfire status dashboard, as of 10 a.m. Thursday, there are 45 active wildfires in the province.

Thursday will be another warm day in Calgary with a forecast high of 24 C, but there is a chance of scattered rain overnight as a low pressure system swings through northern and central Alberta.

If those showers do track as far south as Calgary, accumulations will be minimal.

Of greater concern over the next 24 hours are the strong winds preceding the cold front because that kind of wind could negatively impact wildfire behavior.

Calgary is expecting sustained winds of 20 km/h with gusts closer to 40 km/h.

Temperatures will start to moderate on Friday with highs closer to 20 C until at least the middle of next week.

Some overnight lows on Thursday will drop to the low single-digits in southern Alberta – especially in rural locations and areas closer to the mountains.