Alberta faces ‘a much more complex problem,’ political expert says

A worker blows snow in front of the Alberta Legislature during a heavy snowfall in Edmonton on Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is expected to centre her provincewide address Thursday evening on immigration, population growth and the financial pressures facing the province, setting the stage for next week’s provincial budget.

The televised speech, scheduled for 6:45 p.m. MT and livestreamed on CTV News, comes amid heightened debate over how Alberta is managing rapid growth and the strain it places on public services, housing and the labour market.

While the government has not released details of the address, Smith has repeatedly signalled that immigration, along with its impact on Alberta’s economy and infrastructure, will be a central theme.

“This clearly needs to change. This is not sustainable,” Smith said during an unrelated news conference in Calgary on Wednesday.

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Smith referenced what she described as mounting pressures from declining resource revenues and the rising cost of delivering services to a fast-growing population.

“I’ll have more to say about that in the address, and then we’ll begin the conversation with Albertans about what needs to happen next,” she said.

Smith has argued that provinces should have greater influence over immigration policies, including more control over the selection of newcomers and how they are integrated into local labour markets.

“I would like to see a newcomer have a job when they arrive,” Smith said.

“Because anyone who arrives in Alberta with a good-paying job just has so many greater prospects for success.”

Alberta campaigns ‘very effective’

Political observers say the tone and focus of Thursday’s address will be closely watched for clues about how Smith intends to frame those concerns.

Lori Williams, a policy analyst and political scientist at Mount Royal University, says while immigration is likely to feature prominently in the speech, Alberta’s growth pressures cannot be viewed through that lens alone.

“The reality is we can’t control those who come to Alberta from other places in the country,” Williams told CTV News Thursday.

“We’ve had this ‘Alberta is Calling’ campaign for some years now. It’s been very effective. Lots of folks have come here. Many of them do have jobs, but some of them may have lost jobs after they came here through no fault of their own.”

Williams said interprovincial migration has also played a major role in Alberta’s population surge, alongside international immigration, complicating attempts to attribute service pressures to any single factor.

“We’ve seen economic challenges at times in Alberta. We’ve seen those job numbers decline recently, and of course a lot of it’s tied to the price of oil, which is beyond the control of any of those workers or the government.”

She cautioned against framing immigration as the root cause of longstanding issues in health care and education.

“To suggest that immigration is what’s causing problems in education or health care — those issues are much longer standing than policies of this or that government,” Williams said.

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Williams went on to acknowledge that rapid population growth can intensify demand for services, but said many of the challenges facing Albertans predate recent immigration increases.

“The challenges that Albertans are facing with respect to affordability, health care and education are not caused by immigration from outside of the country. Class sizes, for example, have been growing for much longer than the figures that were tweeted out.”

“It’s a much more complex problem than is being suggested with this focus on immigration.”

Williams also warned that heated political rhetoric risks inflaming social tensions rather than producing workable solutions.

“People want governments to work together to solve these very real problems. They’re not concerned about whose fault it is. They’re concerned about who’s going to fix it.”

Growth and fiscal uncertainty collide

Alberta’s population recently surpassed five million residents, driven by strong interprovincial migration and continued international arrivals.

For several years, the province has led the country in net migration from other provinces, aided by relatively strong employment opportunities and lower housing costs compared with some major Canadian cities.

That growth, however, has coincided with renewed volatility in global energy markets.

Smith has already warned that next week’s budget will present a challenging financial picture, citing softer oil prices and rising program costs.

The province’s revenue base remains heavily tied to resource royalties, leaving public finances vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices.

At the same time, population growth has increased demand for schools, hospitals, transportation infrastructure and other services.

Immigration has still emerged as a focal point in that debate, with Smith arguing Alberta should pursue a model that gives the province more authority over newcomer selection, similar to Quebec’s long-standing agreement with Ottawa.

Her government has also pointed to federal adjustments to temporary foreign worker rules and international student limits as evidence that Ottawa recognizes broader concerns about population growth and system capacity.

Federal policies reshape national debate

As Alberta’s provincial discussion expects to unfold, Canada’s federal government is making fresh moves to modify the country’s immigration system.

Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab this week announced an expansion of the Express Entry program, introducing new priority categories for skilled workers, including researchers, senior managers, pilots and aircraft maintenance professionals.

“Our Express Entry system is at the core of our approach for attracting and retaining the skilled workers Canada needs. We’re not waiting for the right people to find us,” Diab said.

“We will go out into the world to recruit the people our country needs, to connect them with Canadian employers and to highlight why Canada is the best place in the world to build their careers and lives.”

According to the minister’s office, the changes are intended to support innovation, economic growth and workforce development by accelerating permanent residency pathways for targeted applicants with Canadian work experience.

Federal officials have framed the adjustments as part of a broader strategy to address demographic shifts and long-term labour shortages.

Conservatives push back on expansion

Federal Conservatives, however, have sharply criticized the approach, arguing immigration policy must better reflect domestic employment conditions and housing constraints.

In a statement, Michelle Rempel Garner, Conservative shadow minister for immigration, said the government should focus on unemployed Canadians, particularly young people.

“The Government of Canada has the responsibility to prioritize our youth,” Rempel Garner said.

“Yet the Liberals are only focused on expanding immigration streams that push our young people further away from jobs that would set them on a path to success.”

Rempel Garner also called for changes to temporary resident programs and urged the federal government to present clearer plans for managing expiring permits and labour market impacts.

NDP issues statement

Ahead of Thursday’s address, the Alberta NDP’s deputy later, Rakhi Pancholi, issued a statement.

“Tonight, the premier will address the province to get ahead of next week’s budget, which will feature Danielle Smith’s third multibillion-dollar deficit. Albertans will be listening for solutions to the crisis in health care, education, and the rising cost of living. That’s not what they’ll get,” the statement read.

“Instead, Smith will distract, scapegoat, and play the blame game. She will not be accountable for the issues Albertans are facing – problems she and her government created.

“Our education system is the lowest funded per-student in the country, our hospitals and health-care system are in chaos and the cost of living is still increasing. Albertans deserve a government that puts their needs first, not one that points fingers and shifts blame for their mismanagement of Alberta’s finances and essential services.”