Canada faces wave of mortgage delinquencies and arrears, says national housing agency

Canada's mortgage delinquencies rate rose to 0.22 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, according to data published by CMHC. (Pexels)

The country’s housing agency projects that a growing number of Canadians will struggle to make payments as they renew their mortgages this year and next. A top economist from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) says it is monitoring the situation “very closely.”

“My overall expectation is that delinquencies and arrears will be trending upwards,” Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist with CMHC, said about the national picture, in a recent video interview with CTVNews.ca from Ottawa.

“There will be a bit of a downward pressure on the economy as people cope with these higher interest rates on mortgage renewal.”

In 2022, Canada’s mortgage delinquency rate fell to the lowest it’s been in years at 0.14 per cent, according to the CMHC, citing data from Equifax Canada. It rose to 0.22 per cent in the second quarter of this year, a slight dip from the first quarter. It was as high as 0.38 per cent in 2012.

While the number of mortgage delinquencies and arrears are at historically low levels, ab Iorwerth said, the CMHC has observed “a sharp increase” in arrears and delinquencies in some parts of the country.

The CMHC economist estimates that interest rates for homes and condos will probably be three percentage points higher than five years ago. He was not able to provide figures on how much mortgage payments could rise.

When the pandemic began in 2020, many Canadians purchased homes and condos because of the low interest rates.

An estimated two million mortgages across Canada are coming up for renewal this year and in 2026, according to the CMHC.

About 60 per cent of outstanding mortgages across the country are set to renew with higher payments in 2025 or 2026, according to an analysis published in July by Bank of Canada staff. The analysis is produced independently from the bank’s governing council. Most of these borrowers hold a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage, according to the research note.

The impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war is a factor in the bleak picture for some homeowners, as well as the high cost of living, ab Iorwerth said. The general economic slowdown, for instance, means companies will do less investing and hiring, he added.

The situation may also worsen the housing crisis, he said.

“This could also have a compounding effect in that developers and builders will be really reluctant to put shovels in the ground and build more housing,” he said, noting that a shortage of housing could mean rising house prices in a few years.

While many households are facing higher payments, the mortgage renewals won’t “shock” the system, according to Maria Solovieva, an economist with TD Bank, in a report published in July. She noted how total mortgage payments are actually declining due to lower mortgage rates. For instance, mortgage interest payments fell by an average of 1.7 per cent in the final two quarters of 2024, according to her report.

Where are homeowners struggling the most?

Ab Iorwerth said the CMHC is especially concerned about condo owners in Toronto who took out mortgages in 2020 and 2021 when interest rates were low.

Condos were attractive during the pandemic because they were “relatively more affordable” than houses, he said. Many condos were being built in Toronto and the low interest rates enticed many buyers back then, he said. Buyers typically signed five-year terms, which means those owners now have to renew their mortgages at much higher rates. High unemployment in Toronto is also fuelling the CMHC’s concerns.

Shael Weinreb, CEO and founder of The Home Equity Partners in Toronto, says he’s seeing evidence of mortgage delinquencies, especially in Toronto.

“It’s incredibly hard to get ahead, so to be able to keep up with this cost of living, people are forced to carry balances on their lines of credit, on their credit cards,” he said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca.

Major cities including Vancouver and Montreal will experience similar pressures, especially condo owners, but to a “lesser extent” than Toronto, ab Iorwerth added.

Meanwhile, other provinces such as Alberta have a stronger economy than Ontario.

“So we think there’s some capacity in Alberta to absorb these delinquencies,” ab Iorwerth said.