Citi sets 2026 S&P 500 target at 7,700, expects AI to remain key theme

Anthony Matesic works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) (Seth Wenig/AP)

Citigroup has set a year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500 index for 2026, pointing to robust corporate earnings and sustained tailwinds from artificial intelligence investments.

The brokerage said in a note on Friday that it expects AI infrastructure build-out to be a key theme in 2026, echoing Wall Street peers, but predicts the focus will shift from companies that enable AI to those that adopt the nascent technology.

“While the AI emphasis is expected to be persistent, the evolution will likely follow a perceived winner versus loser dynamic,” strategists at Citi said.

Citi’s target implies a 12.7 per cent gain from the benchmark’s last close of 6827.41 points. The brokerage estimates earnings per share for the index to reach US$320 by the end of next year, higher than consensus estimates of about $310.

The widely-tracked index has gained about 16 per cent this year, spurred broadly by investor optimism around AI, robust corporate profits and expectations of falling interest rates, despite fears of a market bubble and high technology valuations.

“To be clear, a high valuation starting point is a hurdle for the market, but not an insurmountable one. Rather, it puts increasing pressure on fundamentals to support the price action,” Citi said.

As the current bull market enters its fourth year, bouts of volatility should be expected and may be more acute given implicit growth expectations, the brokerage added.

Citi expects the index to hit 8,300 in a bull-case scenario, and drop to 5,700 in the bear case.

The brokerage’s year-end index target compares with Oppenheimer Asset Management’s Street-high forecast of 8,100 and a Reuters poll in November that forecast the index would rise about 12% by the end of next year.

In November, UBS Global Wealth Management had also forecast a year-end target of 7,700 for the index.

(Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)