Iranian-Canadians celebrate death of leader while experts warn of widening war

First at Five looks at the growing conflict in Iran and speaks with Iranian-Canadians in Halifax.

A joint U.S.–Israel strike inside Iran over the weekend, along with the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, has sparked celebration among some Iranian-Canadians in Halifax, while a political expert warns the region may now be sliding into a broader war.

Sarvin Borhani said she was overwhelmed when she heard the news about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“When I heard that news, I cried a lot, not because I was sad, but because I was happy and I was overwhelmed with emotions,” she said. “For a second, all of those scenes, of those body bags that he killed my compatriots, came to my mind all at once.”

Borhani said years of repression and deadly crackdowns on protestors made the moment feel long overdue.

“We’re so happy about that. But this is not the end. We haven’t finished our job,” she said. “We want the total and complete overthrow of the Islamic Republic.”

For weeks, Iranian-Canadians had been rallying and calling on the United States to intervene.

“We have been fighting to be their voice. They [family and friends] have asked us to go to the American consulate and go to the rallies so Trump could fulfil his promise to us. I think while my compatriots are sacrificing their lives for the freedom of Iran, I have to do my little part here as well.”

After weekend strikes, Borhani said many see the military action as justified.

“We consider this as a humanitarian intervention,” she said. “It’s not the war against the people of Iran; it is the war against the Islamic Republic.”

While the U.S. has had a negative history of foreign intervention, Borhani said she does not fear the outcome of this war on the regime.

“I think America will benefit from this, Israel will benefit, and so will the people of Iran. Israel and America are helping the people Iran be true allies together and be close friends in the future.

“The fact that we are okay with America going to war against the regime shows how badly we don’t want this regime any longer.”

But Robert Huish, professor and associate dean of research in political science at Dalhousie University, said what unfolded marks a dramatic turn away from diplomacy.

“So all the talks and negotiations or peace buildings that took place with the U.S. and Iran and Geneva, that’s out the window now,” said Huish. “Perhaps there was a deal in the works, but it certainly did not include the intentions of Israel, who clearly, as they’ve been saying for the last couple of years, wanted a direct invasion of Iran. This weekend, they got exactly that, with Israel, and the U.S. following up, as we’ve seen.

“The chessboard has been moving for a while. The U.S. has amassed its naval fleet in the Gulf and in the Indian Ocean over the past few weeks, and also in Nova Scotia. We’ve seen it. We’ve heard strata forest tankers going over the province from the U.S. to Bulgaria and other airports to assist with refuelling bombers. So they were preparing for this attack.”

He described the weekend as a tipping point.

“So now, over the weekend, we had what was moved from supposedly peaceful negotiations to now a full-on regional war with no exit strategy.

“The narrative we got was that this was supposed to be Trump’s heavy hand to encourage negotiations. Israel was not necessarily part of those negotiations, so perhaps whatever deal was being brokered didn’t meet the interests of Tel Aviv.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney voiced support for U.S. and Israeli involvement, while stating Canada would not enter the conflict.

The United Nations has urged restraint, and many Americans have expressed concern about another prolonged overseas.

Huish said Western governments are attempting a strike a delicate balance.

“The international community, Canada in particular, [and] other countries in Europe, they’re going to try walk a really fine line of one, not getting involved in the conflict directly, but two, also not critiquing the intention of the United States or Israel,” he said. “At the same time, there’s a recognition that a series of international laws have been broken.”

He said what happens next inside Iran will be critical.

“The Supreme Leader’s position is currently vacant, but everybody else in that government is still there,” Huish said. “What’s going to be the deciding factor here for us in the West to figure out which way this is going to go is by looking at what happens to protesters inside Iran.

“If the State forces start using force on those protesters, it shows that there’s still strength for the regime, and in that case, we can likely expect the country to start to faction and even descend into civil war.”

Huish cautioned against assuming airstrikes alone can deliver lasting political change.

“Bombing itself has never been a surgical weapon that can do a complete regime change,” he said. “Just look at how much payload was put into Gaza over the last couple of years. Hamas is still in power. Civilian casualties are enormous. Human rights have been abused widely.”

He added that there has “never been a scenario for a clean transition or a safe exit strategy” in confrontations like this.

“There’s a lot of vulnerability right now for a country like Iran to descend into, say, Civil War, where it has nuclear facilities,” Huish said. “That’s high risk. Nobody wants that kind of risk on the table.”

Borhani said her extended family and close friends remain in Iran, and she believes they see the strikes as necessary.

“They prefer that USA attack and get rid of all those, like Islamic Republic agents,” she said. “Our most dangerous enemy is the Islamic Republic.

“We are so sure that this regime change is going to happen that I don’t have any fear.”

Huish said while he understands the emotion behind the celebrations, uncertainty remains.

“I can really appreciate why people are elated that Ayatollah Khamenei is gone because of the sheer amount of suffering that people have gone through under his regime,” he said. “At the same time, without knowing what happens next… none of that is in the cards yet.”