As the threat of a 25 per cent tariff dominates discussion in Canada, there’s a noticeable difference stateside.
“What I’m seeing in Washington is that not a lot of people are aware of tariffs, and Canadian tariffs in particular,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly When asked if Canada’s message on tariffs was resonating within the United States. “We think a lot about the U.S., the U.S. doesn’t think necessarily about Canada much, and a lot of things are happening right now in Washington. President Trump is signing many, different executive orders, lots of things are still in transition.”
Andrew Bedford, CEO of the New Brunswick-based Ginger Agency, is in California this week for a music conference alongside N.B.-based client Sabian Cymbals.
Bedford says tariffs are “a little bit of a topic of conversation” at the conference, but nothing compared to Canada where it’s “certainly a major topic.”
Bedford says Sabian – well known in musician circles around the world – is merely one example of a key local export that would be affected by any looming trade war.
“Another easy example of that is McCain foods, another proud New Brunswick brand,” says Bedford. “They’re one of the main suppliers of McDonald’s French fries, and you can’t get more American than McDonalds. So, there’s just a lot of interesting ways that our economies are linked.”
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is looking to make those links crystal clear on both sides of the border. Representatives from the Chamber were in Washington, D.C., earlier this week for the inauguration of President Trump.
“Everybody was watching that day and the executive orders that followed,” says Matthew Holmes, chief of public policy at the Chamber. “We were all in the moment.
“The reality is we’re in the midst of a major change with the U.S. in terms of the direction they’re going.”
Holmes says the dizzying developments from inauguration day to now should prompt Canadian exporters to have one-on-one conversations with their U.S. partners to put the tariff threat in focus.
“For businesses that trade with the United States throughout New Brunswick and Atlantic Canada, make sure you’re in touch with your suppliers and your clients and make sure they understand how important our free market is,” Holmes says. “We’re trying to tell them that this is going to hurt us, but it’s also going to hurt you, too.”
The Chamber estimates a 25 per cent tariff could reduce Canada’s gross domestic product by 2.6 per cent, costing every Canadian an average of $1,900 annually. At the same time, it estimates retaliatory tariffs could cause a 1.6 per cent drop in the United States’ GDP and lose American $1,300 annually.
“At the end of the day, it’s about making it local, making it real for people, so they can understand just how important trade is with Canada from the U.S.,” says Holmes.
Fredericton Chamber of Commerce CEO Morgan Peters says his members are “rightly” concerned about the uncertain effects of the tariffs.
“I think my message to members and industry and government is remain calm, carry on and focus on ourselves, what we do best, and making the case that we’re better as partners than in some trade war with very high tariffs,” he told CTV Atlantic’s Todd Battis during an interview Thursday night.
Peters believes government is taking the right approach by preparing for a retaliatory strategy.
“And the other thing I would encourage provincial and federal governments to do is to continue to focus on our own growth and invest in our strengths, and in Fredericton that means the knowledge industry largely to me, and we have to continue to work on investing in health care and housing; those issues still exist and it’s going to propel our growth and kind of insulate us as much as possible from trade action with the Americans.”
A delegation from Prince Edward Island, including Premier Dennis King, went to three New England states earlier this month to make the case for avoiding tariffs.
On Thursday, Trump said the United States didn’t need Canadian exports of oil, gas, automobiles or lumber. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters that Canada is “ready to respond in a strong way, but in a way that will be stepping up, gradually.”
Trump continues to mention a timeline of Feb. 1 for when tariffs could take effect.
