The exploding number of wildfires in Canada this season has the federal government developing an early-warning prediction system that has never been seen before in the country.
Using a mathematical equation, the Severe Wildfire Risk Project will predict where the worst forest fires will strike up to two weeks in advance, says a scientist developing the system.
“We’re still going to have severe forest fires and severe years, but it will hopefully allow the planning that goes on nationally to move resources around the country or to bring in other agencies…to be done more efficiently,” said Steve Taylor, a research scientist at the Pacific Forestry Centre.
The early warning system, which is expected to be completed by the summer of 2017, would use weather forecasts, fire history and ground conditions to accurately predict how many major wildfires will occur in different Canadian regions.
It could be of much use in drought-hammered B.C., which has seen 1,310 wildfires sparked this season already and has spent a staggering $145-million battling the blazes.
Premier Christy Clark has said she expects that number could swell to around $400-million by the end of the season.
Some of those costs could be cut back by an early warning system to help governments manage firefighting personnel and evacuation orders more efficiently, according to Taylor.
“You’re looking very much like a game of Risk, at the ability to move those [resources] ahead of where you think they’re needed,” he said. “Moving resources in large quantities, maybe 100, 200 firefighters; these are million dollar decisions. To the extent that we can improve that, the economic benefits are in the order of millions.”
The technology would be welcomed by fire officials in B.C.
“B.C. always looks forward to the best tools that we can use to help do our job more efficiently, and we look forward to any science-based research that might help us with that job,” said Donna MacPherson, fire information officer for the Coastal Fire Centre.
Canadian leaders have gone on record saying fire seasons like the one B.C. is experiencing this year could be the new normal.
In a Wednesday news conference in fire-ravaged West Kelowna, her home riding, Premier Christy Clark said she is concerned climate change has altered the province’s terrain, making it more susceptible to massive wildfires.
